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Description:

This volume summarizes Raymond H. Wheeler's extensive research with long climatic cycles and their relationship to the business cycle. In the 1930's Wheeler began a lifetime study that analyzed world climate and cultural activities back to the dawn of recorded civilization. He discovered:

• The existance of three long-term climatic cycles, each a multiple of 100 years in length;
• That every climatic cycle, regardless of its length, conforms to the same general pattern;
• That important turning points in history, whether cultural, political, military, or demographic, can be timed by these climate cycles, and vice versa;
• That periods of economic prosperity have regularly alternated with periods of depression since the beginning of recorded history;
• That nothing of consequence in business or economics escapes the the infuence of these climatic cycles;
• That, measured by decades, climate and business conditions correlate almost 100%;
• That, with one minor exception, every boom and depression since 1794 has occurred when the wather patterns suggested they should occur;
• That, with a knowledge of these climatic cycles, it is possible to accurately predict business trends and other scenarios well in advance.

Wheeler's forecast of climate and business, prepared in 1950, accurately forecast the depression decade of the 1970's. His forecast through the rest of this century bears close scrutiny. His forecast of political and social events also should be examined closely, especially since we are presently near the terminal stages of two of his major climatic cycles and near the mid-point of the third.

Table of Contents:

• Chapter 1
  Climate Belts of the World 1
  The Old-Fashioned Winters 3
  The influence of Weather Environment 3
  Weather, Human Vitality, and Agressiveness 5
  Climatic Belts Unfavorable to Civilization 5
  Climatic Belts Favorable to Civilization 9
  Summary 11
• Chapter 2
  Climatic Influences and the Industrial Center of the World 13
  Georgraphic Location of Pupulation Centers 13
  Mean Annual Temperatures 15
  Population Density 18
  Mean Seasonal Temperatures 20
  Absolute Temperature Ranges 21
  Daily Temperature Ranges 21
  Rainfall Characteristics 22
  Summary 23
• Chapter 3
  History of Investigations on Climate and Human Behavior 27
  The Ancient Observers 27
  Medieval and Renaissance Contributions 28
  Studies from the Age of Reason 29
  Nineteenth Century Determinism30
  Recent Research in the Age of Analysis 31
  Summary 33
• Chapter 4
  The Effect of Climate on Animals and Human Beings 35
  Energy as Biological Limitation 35
  Intellect as a Function of Physical Work 36
  Resistance to Disease 36
  Menstuation and the Onset of Maturity 37
  Climatic Influences on Human Stature 38
  Birth Rates and Death Rates 39
  Seasonal Variations in Conception 39
  Life Expectancy Correlated to Month of Conception 40
  Effects of Climate on Intelligence and Productivity 41
  Lifestyle Differences Between Northerners and Southerners 41
  Climatic Experiments with White Rats 43
  Effects on Learning 43
  Influence on Physiology...44
  Behavioral Patterns 44
  Mating and Weaning 45
  "Neurotic" Tendencies 46
  Reversing the Experiments 46
  Complex Influences on Human Vitality 46
  Summary 50
• Chapter 5
  The Changeableness of Climate 51
  Climatic Fluctation in the Mediterranean World 51
  Evidence from the Caspian Sea 52
  Historic Variations in the United States 53
  Prehistoric Fluctations 53
  Neolithic Conditions 54
  Recurring Outbursts of Civilizations 55
  The Flowering of Ancient Civilizations 56
  The Sun and Nature of Global Climatic Change 56
  Sunspot Maxima and Minima 57
  The Argument for a World Climate 58
  Summary 59
• Chapter 6
  Sources of Evidence Concerning the Climate of Historic Time 61
  Tree Rings as Indicators of Historic Climatic Conditions 61
  Deficiencies of Using Averages 63
  Tree Growth Maxima and Minima 64
  Tree Rings in Relation to Climatic Cycles 64
  Discrepancies Between Tree Rings and Cyclical Patterns Signal
  Climatic Transitions 70
  Sunspot Cycles 71
  The Lenth of Sunspot Cycles 71
  Sunspot Maxima Since 1755 72
  Sunspot Reports Since 51 A.D. 73
  Miscellaneous Sources of Weather Data 74
  Reliability of Miscellaeous Data 75
  Consolidating Miscellaneous Weather Data 76
  Analysis of Miscellaneous Weather Data 77
  Mass Migrations as a Climatic Indicator 82
  Summary 83
• Chapter 7
  The Successive Phases of Climatic Fluctations 85
  Climatic Patterns Relative to Area During the Nineteenth Century 85
  Climatic Patterns Relative to Intensity 87
  Climatic Cycles Around the World 88
  The Asian Cycle 90
  The African Cycle 90
  The European Cycle 91
  The North American Cycle 91
  The South Americal Cycle 92
  Characteristics of Climatic Fluctations 92
  The Intensity of World Climate 94
  Interpreting Cyclical Irregularity 96
  Constructing and Interpreting the Cycle Curve 98
  Verifying Miscellaneous Information 102
  A Word of Caustion 103
  Summary 106
• Chapter 8
  The Principal CLimatic Cycles in History 109
  The Major Cold-Dry Maxima in History 109
  The Major Warm-Wet Maxima in History 111
  The Major Hot Droughts in History 112
  The Major Cold-Wet Maxima in History 112
  The 1000 - Year Cycle 113
  The 500 - Year Cycle 115
  The Short Cycles 115
  Summary 116
• Chapter 9
  Climatic Conditioning in History 119
  The Effects of Climatic Cycles on Human Achievement 119
  Historical Behavior During Hot Droughts 123
  Cold Phases and the Growth of Democracy 124
  The Paramount Lesson of History 128
  Summary 129
• Chapter 10
  The Golden Ages of History 133
  Correlating Superior Leadership with Climatic Phases 133
  The "Golden Trasitions" of Climatic History 136
  Summary 140
• Chapter 11
  Weather and Business Trends in the United States, 1794 - 1950 141
  Climatic Phases and Business Cycles 141
  The Present Study and its Results 144
  Theories of the Business Cycles 178
  An Important Qualification 181
  Supporting Evidence for the Meteorological Theory of Business Cycles 182
  Summary 187
• Chapter 12
  Pessimism Versus Optimism 199
  Freedom Through Knowledge 199
  A Theory of Progress 203
  Human Free Will 204
  A Unified Energy Field 204
  Human Heredity 208
  Geographic and Climatic Environment 209
  Economic Stability 210
  The Cultural Factor 210
  The Case for Optimism 212
  Summary 216
• Postscript 219
  Wheeler's Forecast of World Climate Through 2050 A.D. 219
  Comments and Observations on the Forecast of World Climate 227
  Projection of Business Cycles Through the Year 2000 230
  Correlation with the Dow Jones Industrials 235
  The 100 - Year Cycle and the Dondratieff Wave Theory 237
  Some Thoughts for Commodity Traders 240
  Political and Social Prospects for the Waning 20th Century 241
  Political Leadership 241
  Individualism 242
  The Economic Ascension of Asia 244
  Population 244
  Wars 245
  Other Projections 246
  Wheeler's Accomplishment 248
  Beyond the Theory of Climatic Conditioning 249
  Four Scenarios for the Future 251